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Thad Jean vs Ernesto Rodriguez Overview

Washington DC
Welterweight · 5 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastJean78%HEAVY FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
Jean
VS
Rodriguez
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Jean at 78%.

How This Fight Ends
KO/TKO35%
Submission18%
Decision47%

Historical PFL · 995 fights · past 5 years · historical context, not a second forecast

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
JeanMetricRodriguez
28Age28
6′2″Height5′9″
—Reach74″
PendingWeigh-inPending

Populates after official weigh-ins.

Measured fight statistics are not available for this matchup.

Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

Jean

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WErnesto RodriguezR3 · KO/TKO
  2. WLogan StorleyR5 · U-DEC
  3. WJason JacksonR3 · S-DEC
  4. WMukhamed BerkhamovR1 · KO/TKO
  5. WChris BrownR3 · U-DEC

Rodriguez

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LThad JeanR3 · KO/TKO
  2. WMasayuki KikuiriM-DEC
  3. WMahmoud Fawzy SebieKO/TKO
  4. WAlexandre de AlmeidaR3 · U-DEC
  5. WEdson MarquesKO/TKO

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

Jean
Checking history…
Rodriguez
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

No verified prior meeting or common-opponent comparison is available.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

Historical PFL · 995 fights · past 5 years

In these past fights, decision was the most common ending (47%). Historical context for this matchup, not a prediction.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Jean's power meets a proven weakness

50% of Jean's wins come by knockout, and Rodriguez has been stopped by strikes 2 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.

Both are used to the scorecards

Jean has 5 decision wins and Rodriguez has 7. Neither needs a finish to win a fight.

Market

Odds Over Time
JeanRodriguez
At event start-520+370
Open-520+370
Event-time · FanDuel
Open · FanDuel · Jul 24, 1:32 PM UTC
MovementThe market held steady.5 comparable observations · FanDuel
Tracked line · FanDuel
First capturedLatest capturedJean+130-700Rodriguez-166+470
Jul 23, 5pm UTC → Jul 25, 2am UTC3 observations
JeanRodriguez
-700+470Jul 23, 5pmJul 25, 2am
Jul 25, 2am UTCJean -700Rodriguez +470
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
FightIQ & market comparison
WinnerJean
FightIQ78%Market80%

FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Jean.

How market probabilities are calculated

Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

Compare sportsbook prices1 sportsbook
SportsbookJeanRodriguez
FanDuel-520+370