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Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie Colgan Overview

New York
Lightweight · 3 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastNurmagomedov68%STRONG FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
Nurmagomedov
VS
Colgan
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Nurmagomedov at 68%.

How This Fight Ends
KO/TKO32%
Submission17%
Decision51%

Historical PFL · 3-round fights · 712 fights · past 5 years · historical context, not a second forecast

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
NurmagomedovMetricColgan
28Age31
5′11″Height5′9″
72″Reach69.5″
OrthodoxStance—
PendingWeigh-inPending

Populates after official weigh-ins.

Measured fight statistics are not available for this matchup.

Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

Nurmagomedov

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WArchie ColganR1 · KO/TKO
  2. WAlfie DavisR3 · Submission
  3. WPaul HughesR5 · Decision
  4. WPaul HughesR5 · Decision
  5. WAlexandr ShabliyDecision

Colgan

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LUsman NurmagomedovR1 · KO/TKO
  2. WJay-Jay WilsonR3 · U-DEC
  3. WMansour BarnaouiR3 · U-DEC
  4. WManoel SousaR3 · U-DEC
  5. WThibault GoutiR3 · U-DEC

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

Nurmagomedov
Checking history…
Colgan
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

No verified prior meeting or common-opponent comparison is available.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

Historical PFL · 3-round fights · 712 fights · past 5 years

In these past fights, decision was the most common ending (51%). Historical context for this matchup, not a prediction.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Both are used to the scorecards

Nurmagomedov has 6 decision wins and Colgan has 7. Neither needs a finish to win a fight.

Market

Odds Over Time
NurmagomedovColgan
At event start-560+420
Open-620+400
Event-time · FanDuel
Open · FanDuel · Jul 29, 5:00 PM UTC
MovementThe market moved about 0.4 percentage points toward Nurmagomedov.Market moved about 0.4 points toward Nurmagomedov.47 comparable observations · FanDuel
Tracked line · FanDuel
First capturedLatest capturedNurmagomedov-620-560Colgan+400+420
Jul 29, 5pm UTC → Jul 31, 7pm UTC46 observations
NurmagomedovColgan
-560+420Jul 29, 5pmJul 31, 7pm
Jul 31, 7pm UTCNurmagomedov -560Colgan +420
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
FightIQ & market comparison
WinnerNurmagomedov
FightIQ68%Market82%

The market favors Nurmagomedov more strongly than FightIQ does.

How market probabilities are calculated

Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

Compare sportsbook prices2 sportsbooks
SportsbookNurmagomedovColgan
FanDuel-560+420
Betway-450+300